Again this year I will be reviewing the Oscars for this blog. It’ll be up first thing Monday morning, long after people even remember that SALT was nominated for anything. To get you in the mood, here’s my thoughts on the Best Picture category.
SOCIAL NETWORK
WHY IT WILL WIN – Turning a bunch of nerds typing on computers into an engrossing and entertaining film is no easy feat. Through clever direction, excellent performances, and snappy dialogue you forget that not a lot is happening.
Oscar likes movies that are grown-up and sophisticated.
Oprah liked it.
It’s set in Harvard and Ali McGraw doesn’t die.
Aaron Sorkin guested on this blog.
WHY IT WON’T WIN – Many Academy voters are 95 and have never heard of Facebook.
The screeners weren’t in a pretty enough box.
Not a lot happens.
No Ali McGraw.
Aaron Sorkin guested on this blog.
THE KING’S SPEECH
WHY IT WILL WIN – Oscar loves movies where the lead has some handicap or affliction. It’s the RAIN MAN effect.
It’s British. Short of HELP! Oscar will nominate any movie that was made at the Pinewood Studios.
It feels “important”, but that could just be the wigs.
Helena Bonham Carter not wearing raccoon make up.
WHY IT WON’T WIN – Judi Dench is not in it.
Voters found it annoying that the main character was stuttering.
British epics must involve at least one war complete with battle scene and amputation. (Just talking about war doesn't count.)
Most voters knew King George VI personally and he wasn’t that great a guy.
BLACK SWAN
WHY IT WILL WIN – Oscar loves characters having nervous breakdowns almost as much as they like characters who are retarded.
Ballet movies never miss.
Natalie Portman is Oscar’s current darling. She can make NO STRINGS ATTACHED and still be respected.
WHY IT WON’T WIN – Lots of male voters would rather have a prostate exam than watch this angst-fest.
The 95 year-old voters will confuse it with NO STRINGS ATTACHED.
127 HOURS
WHY IT WILL WIN – Danny Boyle has constructed a riveting brilliant movie.
It’s the only way they could get James Franco to host.
WHY IT WON’T WIN – The guys cuts his own arm off. No chance.
Even buying off the Foreign Press didn’t get it a Golden Globe.
THE FIGHTER
WHY IT WILL WIN – Boxing movies always score.
Christian Bale gives the performance of the year.
Feel-good ending.
Stallone isn’t in it.
Becoming the dark horse favorite.
WHY IT WON’T WIN – If RAGING BULL didn’t win, then this thing won’t.
INCEPTION
WHY IT WILL WIN – Startling special effects.
It’s a movie the general public has actually seen.
Clearly the best choice when watching these nominees stoned.
WHY IT WON’T WIN – The story is a confusing mess.
Oscar has a real case of the red ass against Chris Nolan.
Made too much money.
Heath Ledger’s not in it.
THE KIDS ARE ALRIGHT
WHY IT WILL WIN – It won’t. Who are we kidding?
WHY IT WON’T WIN – See "Why It Will Win".
It’s only nominated to fill out the category.
TOY STORY 3
WHY IT WILL WIN – Beautifully told story with heart and imagination.
Oscar has a big man crush on Tom Hanks. Even just his voice is enough to make Big O have a little O.
WHY IT WON’T WIN – It’s a cartoon.
Other than those voters who took their great-great-grandchildren to see it, no Academy members have screened this picture.
TRUE GRIT
WHY IT WILL WIN – The Coen Brothers can do no wrong, even when they do.
It’s better than the original.
Westerns are always a big favorite. From STAGECOACH to UNFORGIVEN. If you have a character in a cowboy hat riding a horse in Malibu Canyon you’ve got a nomination.
Not a lot of Jews in it like A SERIOUS MAN.
WHY IT WON’T WIN – They’ve already won a couple of times.
No one could understand a word Jeff Bridges said.
Some people are still pissed that NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN won.
Not enough Jews.
The original was better.
WINTER’S BONE
WHY IT WILL WIN – It’s a gripping drama with scope and noir.
A tale of survival where the heroine keeps her arm.
Oscar loves poverty.
Ree Dolly is fabulous.
Who doesn’t want to spend two hours in the Ozarks?
WHY IT WON’T WIN – Natalie Portman doesn’t star in it.
Randy Newman didn’t do the soundtrack.
It’s another film to just fill out the category. But thank God for it. Otherwise SALT might have been nominated.
What do you guys think? Who’s going to win?
